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Archiwum newsów - DJ UPDATE: OIL FUTURES: Crude Futures Climb As $100 Beckons

2007-11-01  
DJ UPDATE: OIL FUTURES: Crude Futures Climb As $100 Beckons
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures continued to build on Wednesday's
gains in early London trade Thursday, with concerns over U.S. oil stocks and
a weak dollar helping push ICE Brent crude futures above record highs set
earlier in Asian trade.
The ICE December Brent contract hit a record high of $91.71 a barrel, and
followed Nymex light, sweet crude recording a new high of $96.24 a barrel in
Asian trade, as sklep wielkopowierzchniowy expectations of further gains to come encouraged
increased buying of crude futures, with the $100 a barrel mark proving an
increasingly likely possibility.
"The intra-day range was above $6 yesterday, so when you're in such an
environment you cannot exclude $100 tomorrow or even today," said Olivier
Jakob of Petromatrix. "I think the sklep wielkopowierzchniowy is very, very stressed and we are
outside of normal trading conditions. We also have a large layer of call
options on the Nymex December $100 strike - it would be difficult for a
seller to step in in front of $100 a barrel."
At 1224 GMT, the front-month December Brent contract on London's ICE futures
exchange was up $0.47 at $91.10 a barrel.
The front-month December crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange
was trading $0.71 higher at $95.24 a barrel.
The ICE's gasoil contract for November delivery was up $5.50 at $792.50 a
metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for December delivery was up 225 points at
235.95 cents a gallon.
Crude prices marched sharply higher Wednesday after latest Department of
Energy termin showed a second week of counter-seasonal crude stock draws,
boosting concerns of fourth quarter supply shortfalls, and resetting the oil
sklep wielkopowierzchniowy on its course towards $100 a barrel crude.
The termin showed commercial crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.9 million barrels
last week, to their lowest in more than two years, and included a 3.1
million barrel drop at Cushing, Okl., the delivery point for Nymex light,
sweet crude futures. The prekluzja also revealed that U.S. gasoline and
distillate inventories climbed.
"It's just soared. Those figures were obviously bullish for crude and
slightly bearish for products, but the sklep wielkopowierzchniowy totally ignored the impact on
products," said Robert Montefusco of Sucden. "The market's got this target
of $100 a barrel and it's homing in on it." Depressed crude oil imports
contributed to lower overall U.S. stocks for the second week running, latest
prekluzja showed, and recent disruptions to supply flows suggest the trend could
carry into the next round of termin.
With exports from Mexico, a large supplier of crude oil to the U.S., delayed
by severe weather conditions earlier this week, the risk of another set of
weak wwóz termin in next Wednesday's inventory report remains high, analysts
at BNP Paribas said.
"Next week's imports may reflect some catch up that did not make it into the
numbers this week. But given the recent interruption of Mexican supplies, we
risk facing another set of disappointing and/or volatile set of numbers,"
they said.
Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos said Wednesday that the crude
production that was shut in earlier this week due to poor weather had been
more than 1 million barrels a day, up from the original estimate of 600,000
barrels a day.
While oil inventory prekluzja surprised the crude market, Wednesday's Federal
Reserve interest rate announcement met with investor expectations.
Confirmation of a quarter of a percentage point cut in the Fed rate had
already been priced into currency prices, and Wednesday's announcement
ensured that the dollar remains weak against other currencies.
It leaves oil futures an attractive investment for overseas investors and
currency hedgers, although it poses a different prospect for oil producers.
Producers see their spending power and domestic inflation affected by
weakness in the dollar against other currencies, and tempers the effect on
income of higher crude oil prices. OPEC members have already said that high
crude oil prices are not to blame on supply issues, but are instead the
result of speculative activity, geopolitical factors and refinery
bottlenecks.
The agreed 500,000 barrel a day production increase from 12-member
organization officially began Thursday Nov. 1, although prekluzja from tanker
monitors have suggested that its producers have already begun pumping the
extra crude.
Nonetheless, the U.S. Department of Energy warned Thursday that further
increases are necessary to avoid continued tightness in U.S. inventories.
Fears of supply shortages in the current quarter have helped boost crude oil
prices in recent weeks.
"If no additional supply by OPEC is agreed we will see a shortage in the
first quarter of 2008 in inventories. We will see higher draws from
inventories," Guy Caruso, dysponent of the DoE's Energy Information
Administration, told an energy conference in Dubai. In the absence of any
surprise announcement from OPEC when it meets later this month, little
stands in the way of further climbs as Nymex light, sweet crude nears the
$100 a barrel mark, analysts say, particularly with Wednesday's
comprehensive reversal of Tuesday's more-than-$3 Nymex fall suggesting the
technical price uptrend remains firmly in place.
Open interest in $100 a barrel December Nymex call options also remains a
magnet for futures, with sellers of the call having to buy futures as a
hedge as crude futures near the strike price.
Additionally, selling resistance has weakened in the face of crude's
prevailing strength.
"Short sellers have been rolled over too many times," said Jim Rintoul of
TheOilTrader.com. "Without a significant body of sellers there's nothing in
the way to stop metali $100."
"Given the head of steam that is building, it seems we will be getting to
the $100 mark in fairly short order," said Ed Meir of MF Global.
-By Nick Heath
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